Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE)/ Department of Homeland Security
Economical Impact of COVID-19 and Optimal Vaccination Distribution at County Level in the U.S.
$100,000
01/01/2024–12/31/2024
Huseyin Yuce – Mathematics Department
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a far-reaching impact on the entire world since its start in late 2019, impacting healthcare system, labor intensive areas (e.g., manufacturing), supply-chain system and ultimately nation’s economy. This proposal is two-fold, analyzing the economical impact of COVID-19 and optimal distribution of the vaccination process. First of all, the pandemic triggered an unprecedented economic crisis. Many measures of restrictions (lockdowns, travel advisory, social distancing, etc.), aimed to contain the virus’s spread, led to extensive disruptions across industries. Businesses faced closures or reduced operations, causing supply chain interruptions, plummeting consumer demand, and a surge in unemployment. Stock markets experienced extreme volatility, and multiple sectors, including tourism, hospitality, and retail, were particularly hard-hit. Hlavka and Rose estimated that COVID-19’s total cost to the U.S. economy to reach $14 trillion by end of 2023. The study will provide a descriptive analysis of the economics data as well as multivariate regressions to perform various estimates. Also, vaccination campaigns continue to be a crucial weapon against infectious diseases like COVID-19. Various approaches are employed to optimize distribution and maximize vaccine coverage. The second part of this project ensures that vaccines are distributed in a manner that maximizes their impact, minimizes wastage, and adheres to logistical and ethical considerations. We will employ linear programming techniques to reach widespread immunization coverage systematically and efficiently. So, this part of the study will attempt to optimize the distribution process of the vaccine in the U.S. The proposal will investigate various economical impacts of COVID-19 providing statistical models and optimized distribution process of vaccination in the U.S.
Using Data Science Tools for Investigating Communications from the Conti Group and the Oath Keepers
$50,000
05/01/2023–12/31/2024
Boyan Kostadinov – Mathematics Department
The main goal of this proposal is to continue developing modern data science workflows for doing a comprehensive data analysis of the entire collection of communications from the notorious ransomware group Conti, as well as chat logs and other communications from the Oath Keepers. We plan to continue developing a variety of data science tools for text mining, natural language processing, network analysis and visualizations to investigate the communications from the two groups and understand the structure of the networks, discover any valuable information such as bitcoin, IP, email and web addresses being used, as well as any other valuable information that could lead to further insights into the inner workings of the groups, and possibly identifying key players and disrupting these networks, which pose enormous risks to business, society and democracy. The proposed research has the potential to benefit law enforcement and other government agencies, provide the DHS with training materials, and publish papers and educational modules that can benefit the larger research and education community.